Key Events In The Coming Quiet Week: US Industrial Production In Focus

It is a relatively quiet week for economic news in the and Eurozone with focus turning to UK data, Japan 1Q GDP, inflation in Canada & Australia's employment report. Norway GDP should show continued improvement and the Riksbank proposal on a new policy target will also draw interest. In EM there are monetary policy meetings in Chile, Indonesia, Mexico and Poland.

The start to the week is even more quiet today with no significant data to highlight, while in the US the May empire manufacturing reading is due along with the NAHB housing market index for May.

On Tuesday, with little of note in Asia it’ll be straight to Europe where the final April CPI revisions are due in France along with the April CPI/RPI/PPI data docket in the UK. Euro area Q1 GDP and March trade data follows, while the May ZEW survey is also due in Germany. In the US tomorrow we’re due to receive April housing starts, building permits and industrial production data.

We’re kicking off Wednesday in Japan where the March industrial production print is due. In the UK we’ll get March and April employment data, while April CPI for the Euro area is also due.

There is no data of note in the US on Wednesday.

Thursday kicks off in Japan again with the Q1 preliminary GDP report, while in China we’re also due to get April property prices data. In France on Thursday we’ll get Q1 employment data while in the UK we’ll get April retail sales. In the US on Thursday the data includes initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business outlook for May and Conference Board’s leading index for April.

It’s a quiet end to the week on Friday. In Germany we get April PPI while in the afternoon session we get the flash consumer confidence reading for the Euro area in May. There is no data in the US on Friday.

Away from the data the Fed’s Bullard and Mester are scheduled to speak on Thursday, with Bullard also speaking on Friday. ECB President Draghi also speaks on Thursday along with Nowotny and Lautenschlaeger. Praet and Constancio speak on Friday. The NY Fed releases its Q1 US household debt and credit report on Wednesday. UK politicians excluding PM May take part in a televised election debate on Thursday

Visual summary of key events:


And here is Goldman with a focus only on the US, together with key expectations.

The key economic release this week is the industrial production report on Tuesday. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Monday, Month 15

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, May (consensus +7.3, last +5.2)
  • 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, March (last +$19.3bn)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus +68, last +68): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index to remain flat in May, after the index pulled back more than expected in the April report.

Tuesday, Month 16

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS +5.0%, consensus +3.7%, last -6.8%); Building permits, April (consensus +0.2%, last +4.2%): We expect favorable single-family fundamentals and a post-winter-storm rebound to boost housing construction activity in April. Offsetting this, we expect a modest decline in multifamily starts, reflecting signs of potential oversupply in that segment. Taken together, we expect a 5.0% gain in housing starts, reversing most of the 6.8% drop in March.
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, April (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Manufacturing production, April (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.4%); Capacity utilization, April (GS +76.7%, consensus +76.3%, last +76.1%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.9% in April, reflecting a sharp pickup in auto production and a further rise in mining output, partially offset by a drop in utilities output following unseasonably cold March weather. We estimate manufacturing production rose 0.7%, reflecting the expected improvement in auto output as well as broader cyclical improvement in other manufacturing categories.

Wednesday, Month 17

  • There are no major economic data releases.

Thursday, Month 18

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 13 (GS 240k, consensus 240k, last 236k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 6 (consensus 1,950k, last 1,918k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 4k to 240k in the week ended May 13. Claims in New York state appeared particularly depressed in the prior week, and we expect a rebound in that state. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have trended down further in recent weeks, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue.
  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS +20.0, consensus +18.5, last +22.0): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to drop 2pt to 20.0 in May. In the April report, the headline index declined by 10.8pt to +22.0 with most key components also dropping. While the level of the index remains somewhat elevated, industrial company results and commentary have been encouraging over the last month, with mounting evidence of accelerating growth in the industrial economy. Accordingly, we expect a small drop to levels still consistent with solid expansion in manufacturing activity.
  • 01:15 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester will give a speech at the Economic Club of Minnesota’s luncheon. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

Friday, Month 19

  • 09:15 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. Economy and monetary policy at the Association for Corporate Growth St. Louis Chapter. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

And visually:


Source: BofA, DB, GS, Barclays

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